2020 Forecast Highlights
The Colorado State University hurricane forecast is a good reminder to prepare now. CSU researchers are predicting 16 named storms (12.1 average from 1981-2010), 8 hurricanes (6.4 average) and 4 major hurricanes (2.7 average) for the Atlantic basin in 2020.
The forecast also listed probabilities for a major hurricane to make landfall on specific areas of the United States: entire continental U.S. coastline: 69% (last-century average 52%); U.S. East Coast (including Peninsula Florida): 45% (last-century average 31%); Gulf Coast from Brownsville, Texas to Florida Panhandle: 44% (last-century average 30%).
Released in April, the CSU forecast was developed using 38 years of past data and several prediction models. Other 2020 CSU Atlantic basin hurricane forecasts will be released on June 4, July 7 and August 6.
2019 Hurricane Season in Review
The Atlantic basin saw 18 named storms, 6 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes in 2019. Category 3, 4 and 5 hurricanes are considered major, and have sustained winds in excess of 111 mph.
In July, a mesoscale complex over Kansas evolved into Category 1 Hurricane Barry. It brought high storm surge and widespread flooding rains of 10” to 15” to southern Louisiana. Hurricane Dorian, packing 185 mph maximum sustained winds and gusts up to 220 mph, struck the Bahamas in early September. It killed more than 60 people and caused billions of dollars in damage. Tropical storm Imelda made landfall over southeast Texas a few weeks later. Training bands of thunderstorms flooded the I-10 corridor from Winnie to Beaumont with 30” to 40” of rain. Fannett, Texas received 31” of rain in just 12 hours.
Prepare Now—Before Storms Hit
The 2020 Atlantic Hurricane season begins June 1, and runs through November 30. Spring and early summer is a great time to review your family’s emergency preparedness plans. Tropical storm or hurricane-force winds can damage the electrical grid and take water treatment plants offline. Whether you plan on sheltering in place or heading to higher ground this year, make sure you have a potable water source available.
Colorado State University April 2020 Atlantic Basin Hurricane Forecast
NOAA: Active 2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season Comes to an End
National Weather Service 2019 Hurricane Dorian Overview
National Hurricane Center – Tropical Cyclone Report – Hurricane Dorian
National Weather Service 2019 Tropical Storm Imelda Overview
National Hurricane Center – Tropical Cyclone Report – Hurricane Barry